Program > Papers by speaker > Creel Jérôme

The paper revisits the notion of potential output, using different estimates of the Okun coefficient, to then extract new measures of the US fiscal stance which draw on observable data and transparent targets. It highlights the dynamic fiscal multiplier effects and shows that the value of the fiscal multiplier depends quite substantially on the underlying variables of potential output's estimates. In contrast, the state-dependence of the fiscal multiplier effect is found to be more sensitive on unemployment rate thresholds used to separate bad years from good years than on the underlying variables of potential output's estimates.